FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Telstar 3–0 Heracles AlmeloMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Telstar at 48%, draw at 24%, Heracles Almelo at 27%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Telstar.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Telstar win
48%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Almelo win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.23 – 1.67
Total 3.89
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 50%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.81x
- Over 8.5 SOT✗
- Over 2.5 Goals✓
- Over 10.5 Corners✓
- 1X✓