> MATCH.PREDICT()·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Monday 11 May, 19:15 UTC
Tondela vs Moreirense
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Tondela's 0.40 xG edge combined with 76% Over 1.5 Goals probability makes the unders-heavy 3.22 total xG the match's clearest value play.
Win probability
44.3% home28.0% draw27.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
TondelastepMoreirense
1.68Base xG · rolling 26-match1.46
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.81Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.41
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
6
4
2
1
1
7
10
7
3
1
2
7
9
7
3
1
3
4
6
4
2
1
4
2
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Tondela 2–0 Moreirense
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+