FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Monday, 11 May 2026
Tondela 2–0 MoreirenseMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 11 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Tondela at 44%, draw at 28%, Moreirense at 28%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Tondela.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Tondela win
44%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Moreirense win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.81 – 1.41
Total 3.22
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-1.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 46%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 2.79x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- 1X✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"Tondela's 0.40 xG edge combined with 76% Over 1.5 Goals probability makes the unders-heavy 3.22 total xG the match's clearest value play."