> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Friday 08 May, 18:45 UTC
Torino vs Sassuolo
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
41.5% home29.7% draw28.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
TorinostepSassuolo
1.51Base xG · rolling 26-match1.39
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.64Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.34
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
7
5
2
1
1
8
11
7
3
1
2
7
9
6
3
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Over 22.5 Shots + 1X + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 25.1% · @ 3.98x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Torino 2–1 Sassuolo
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+