Bawler / Italy: Serie A / Sassuolo
Team profile

Sassuolo Prediction

Per-game numbers from 38 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
10.7
a game
14.4 faced
On target
3.7
a game
5.0 faced
Goals
1.2 – 1.3
scored – conceded
a game, 38 matches
Next match
16%
Sassuolo win chance
at Atalanta · Sun 23 Aug 18:45

Sassuolo prediction: for Sassuolo's next match — Atalanta vs Sassuolo on Sunday 23 Aug, 18:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Atalanta are favoured (61%).

Sassuolo sit close to the Serie A average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.11 expected goals a game and conceding 1.48. Recent form is poor — 3 defeats in a row. Next up is a trip to Atalanta, where the model has them as underdogs at 16%.

Sassuolo in numbers

38 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.2
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
Home 1.3Away 1.1
3.8
Corners · per game
give up 4.9
Home 3.8Away 3.7
10.7
Shots · per game
faced 14.4
Home 10.7Away 10.7
3.7
On target · per game
faced 5.0
Home 3.7Away 3.8
Last 6 games
24 May
0-1
@ Parma
1-1
17 May
2-3
vs Lecce
2-8
08 May
1-2
@ Torino
5-7
03 May
2-0
vs AC Milan
2-3
26 Apr
0-0
@ Fiorentina
4-7
17 Apr
2-1
vs Como
5-8

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Atalanta · Sunday 23 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Win
16%
Sassuolo
Draw
23%
Loss
61%
Atalanta
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Sassuolo compare with the Italy: Serie A average, per match.

Goals for
1.11
Below average
Goals against
1.48
Leakier than most
Record
1W 1D 3L
5 settled
Real goals
1.2 – 1.6
For / against, per match
Scored1.11
Conceded1.48

The grey line on each bar is the Italy: Serie A average (1.24 scored, 1.32 conceded).

What the data says
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.48 xG per match · +0.15 vs league average of 1.32.
Tough market: Result
Sassuolo matches give the model a harder read here — 1/3 (33%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.
3-match losing run
Form line shows consecutive losses in their most recent settled fixtures. Confidence is low going into the next match.

How Bawler has done on Sassuolo

40%
of high-confidence calls correct — 2 of 5, below the ~65% baseline — a hard team to read
Result33%1/3
Goals (Over/Under)50%1/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Sun 24 May@ Parma
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs Lecce
High confidence: 1X
Fri 08 May@ Torino
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 17 Aprvs Como
High confidence: X2
Sat 21 Mar@ Juventus
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INBenja DomínguezLWfrom BolognaLoan
INArijanet MuricGKfrom Ipswich Town€7m
INSebastian WalukiewiczRBfrom Torino€5m
INRafael ObradorLWBfrom BenficaLoan
INKieron BowieSTfrom Hellas VeronaLoan
INVasilije AdzicAMfrom JuventusLoan
OUTTarik MuharemovicCBto Leeds United€40m
OUTRuanCBto Atletico MG€3.5m
OUTSamuele MulattieriSTto Hellas VeronaLoan
OUTJustin KumiDMto Juve StabiaLoan
OUTJanis AntisteAMto Górnik ZabrzeLoan
OUTFlavio RussoSTto CataniaLoan
OUTGioele ZacchiGKto BresciaLoan
OUTBorna Knezovicto CasaranoLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Sassuolo and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly