FT · Italy: Serie A · Friday, 08 May 2026
Torino 2–1 SassuoloMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 08 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Torino at 42%, draw at 30%, Sassuolo at 29%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Torino.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Torino win
42%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
Sassuolo win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.64 – 1.34
Total 2.97
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 45%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.98x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
- 1X✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓