> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 02 May, 17:00 UTC
Toronto FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
8.5% home18.9% draw72.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Toronto FCstepSan Jose Earthquakes
0.60Base xG · rolling 26-match2.40
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.65Final λ — what the Poisson uses2.31
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
12
14
11
6
3
1
1
3
8
9
7
4
2
1
2
1
3
3
2
1
1
3
1
1
4
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Toronto FC 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+