FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Toronto FC 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Toronto FC at 8%, draw at 19%, San Jose Earthquakes at 73%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was San Jose Earthquakes to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
8%
Draw
19%
Actual ✓
Earthquakes win
73%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.65 – 2.31
Total 2.95
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 92%
✓ Won
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 43%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
1X
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won