> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Sunday 24 May, 15:00 UTC
Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Everton's Europa push provides crucial motivation edge despite marginally inferior xG, making the draw with away win coverage (X2) the banker play at 75%.
▲End-of-season stakes
Home
Tottenham Hotspur
Fighting to stay up
17th · 2 pts clear of drop · 1 left
Model nudged xG by +4.5% for motivation
Away
Everton
Nothing to play for
12th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by −5% for motivation
Win probability
35.6% home33.0% draw31.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Tottenham HotspurstepEverton
1.21Base xG · rolling 26-match1.27
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.31Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.22
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
10
6
2
1
1
10
13
8
3
1
2
7
8
5
2
1
3
3
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Tottenham Hotspur 1–0 Everton
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+