FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Tottenham Hotspur 1–0 EvertonMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Tottenham Hotspur at 36%, draw at 33%, Everton at 31%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Tottenham Hotspur.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Hotspur win
36%
Actual ✓
Draw
33%
Everton win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.31 – 1.22
Total 2.53
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.5 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 75%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Everton's Europa push provides crucial motivation edge despite marginally inferior xG, making the draw with away win coverage (X2) the banker play at 75%."