> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Monday 11 May, 19:00 UTC
Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Tottenham's relegation desperation creates inflated win probability despite worse xG, making Draw/Leeds away value at 37% implied odds.
Win probability
33.8% home29.6% draw36.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Tottenham HotspurstepLeeds United
1.37Base xG · rolling 26-match1.61
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.48Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.55
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 9.5 Corners + Over 22.5 Shots + Over 2.5 Goals + 1X
Model 24.2% · @ 4.13x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Tottenham Hotspur 1–1 Leeds United
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+