FT · England: Premier League · Monday, 11 May 2026
Tottenham Hotspur 1–1 Leeds UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 11 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Tottenham Hotspur at 34%, draw at 30%, Leeds United at 37%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Leeds United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Hotspur win
34%
Draw
30%
Actual ✓
United win
37%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.48 – 1.55
Total 3.03
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 46%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 31%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 4.13x
- Over 9.5 Corners✓
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✗
- 1X✓
> What we said pre-match
"Tottenham's relegation desperation creates inflated win probability despite worse xG, making Draw/Leeds away value at 37% implied odds."