Bawler / England: Premier League / Leeds
Team profile

Leeds Prediction

Per-game numbers from 42 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.5
a game
12.3 faced
On target
4.0
a game
4.1 faced
Goals
1.4 – 1.4
scored – conceded
a game, 42 matches
Next match
27%
Leeds win chance
at Nott'm Forest · Sat 22 Aug 14:00

Leeds prediction: for Leeds's next match — Nott'm Forest vs Leeds on Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Nott'm Forest are favoured (44%).

Leeds sit close to the Premier League average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.59 expected goals a game and conceding 1.30. Next up is a trip to Nottingham Forest, where the model has them as underdogs at 27%.

Leeds in numbers

42 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.4
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
Home 1.5Away 1.2
4.4
Corners · per game
give up 4.9
Home 5.6Away 3.4
12.5
Shots · per game
faced 12.3
Home 14.3Away 11.0
4.0
On target · per game
faced 4.1
Home 4.4Away 3.7
Last 6 games
02 Aug
4-2
@ Liverpool
7-3
31 Jul
1-0
@ Sunderland
0-0
24 May
0-3
@ West Ham
4-6
17 May
1-0
vs Brighton
7-8
11 May
1-1
@ Tottenham
2-14
01 May
3-1
vs Burnley
5-0

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Nott'm Forest · Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Win
27%
Leeds
Draw
29%
Loss
44%
Opponent
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Leeds compare with the England: Premier League average, per match.

Goals for
1.59
Above average
Goals against
1.30
Tighter than most
Record
4W 2D 2L
8 settled
Real goals
1.4 – 1.0
For / against, per match
Scored1.59
Conceded1.30

The grey line on each bar is the England: Premier League average (1.44 scored, 1.47 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.59 xG per match · +0.16 above the England: Premier League average of 1.44.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.30 xG per match · -0.17 vs league average of 1.47.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 75% of the time on Leeds fixtures (3/4).
Tough market: Goals (Over/Under)
Leeds matches give the model a harder read here — 1/3 (33%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.

How Bawler has done on Leeds

63%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 8
Result75%3/4
Goals (Over/Under)33%1/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Tue 25 Aug@ Nottingham Forest

Recent matches (last 8)

Sun 24 May@ West Ham United
High confidence: X2
Sun 17 Mayvs Brighton & Hove Albion
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Mon 11 May@ Tottenham Hotspur
High confidence: X2
Fri 01 Mayvs Burnley
High confidence: 1X
Sun 26 Apr@ Chelsea
High confidence: Chelsea or Draw (Double Chance)
Sat 18 Aprvs Wolves
High confidence: 1X
Sun 05 Apr@ West Ham
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 21 Marvs Brentford
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INTarik MuharemovicCBfrom Sassuolo€40m
INJames TraffordGKfrom Manchester CityUndisclosed
INHarry WilsonRWfrom Free agentFree transfer
OUTPascal StruijkCBto Brighton & Hove Albion€23m
OUTJack HarrisonRWto New England RevolutionUndisclosed
OUTIllan MeslierGKto Free agentFree transfer
OUTJoe GelhardtAMto Hull City€7.6m
OUTIsaac SchmidtLMto Young BoysFree transfer
OUTMaximilian WöberCBto Schalke 04Free transfer
OUTKarl DarlowGKto Manchester UnitedFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Leeds and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly