> MATCH.PREDICT()·Turkey: Süper Lig·Sunday 17 May, 17:00 UTC
Trabzonspor vs Genclerbirligi
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Trabzonspor's title pressure and 0.58 xG advantage make 1X the banker play despite modest 48% win odds, capturing draw equity against desperate Genclerbirligi.
Win probability
47.5% home30.3% draw22.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
TrabzonsporstepGenclerbirligi
1.52Base xG · rolling 26-match1.11
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.64Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.06
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
7
4
1
1
11
12
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
3
5
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Trabzonspor 0–3 Genclerbirligi
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+