FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Trabzonspor 0–3 GenclerbirligiMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Trabzonspor at 48%, draw at 30%, Genclerbirligi at 22%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-3. The model's headline call was Trabzonspor to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Trabzonspor win
48%
Draw
30%
Genclerbirligi win
22%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.64 – 1.06
Total 2.71
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 68%
✗ Lost
Value
X2
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.79x
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- 1X✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
> What we said pre-match
"Trabzonspor's title pressure and 0.58 xG advantage make 1X the banker play despite modest 48% win odds, capturing draw equity against desperate Genclerbirligi."