> MATCH.PREDICT()·Germany: Bundesliga·Saturday 09 May, 13:30 UTC
TSG Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
49.2% home25.1% draw25.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
TSG HoffenheimstepWerder Bremen
1.99Base xG · rolling 26-match1.60
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.15Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.54
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
TSG Hoffenheim 1–0 Werder Bremen
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+