FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 09 May 2026
TSG Hoffenheim 1–0 Werder BremenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had TSG Hoffenheim at 49%, draw at 25%, Werder Bremen at 26%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward TSG Hoffenheim.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Hoffenheim win
49%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Bremen win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.15 – 1.54
Total 3.69
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✗ Lost
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 50%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.43x
- Over 2.5 Goals✗
- Over 10.5 Corners✓
- 1X✓