> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 17 May, 18:45 UTC
Udinese vs Cremonese
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Cremonese's relegation desperation combined with Udinese's xG edge makes 1X the optimal play at 69% win probability.
Win probability
41.8% home33.1% draw25.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
UdinesestepCremonese
1.30Base xG · rolling 26-match1.08
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.04
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
9
5
2
1
12
13
7
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Udinese 0–1 Cremonese
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+