FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Udinese 0–1 CremoneseMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Udinese at 42%, draw at 33%, Cremonese at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Udinese to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Udinese win
42%
Draw
33%
Cremonese win
25%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.40 – 1.04
Total 2.45
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 69%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.26x
- Over 7.5 SOT✗
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- 1X✗
> What we said pre-match
"Cremonese's relegation desperation combined with Udinese's xG edge makes 1X the optimal play at 69% win probability."