> MATCH.PREDICT()·GERMANY: Bundesliga·Saturday 02 May, 13:30 UTC
Union Berlin vs FC Koln
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
37.3% home29.4% draw33.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Union BerlinstepFC Koln
1.31Base xG · rolling 26-match1.38
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.42Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.33
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
9
6
3
1
1
9
12
8
4
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Union Berlin 2–2 FC Koln
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+