FT · GERMANY: Bundesliga · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Union Berlin 2–2 FC KolnMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Union Berlin at 37%, draw at 29%, FC Koln at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Union Berlin to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Berlin win
37%
Draw
29%
Actual ✓
Koln win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.42 – 1.33
Total 2.74
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 29%
✓ Won