Bawler / GERMANY: Bundesliga / Union Berlin
Team profile

Union Berlin Prediction

Per-game numbers from 34 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.5
a game
12.9 faced
On target
3.9
a game
4.4 faced
Goals
1.3 – 1.7
scored – conceded
a game, 34 matches
Corners
5.0
a game
4.8 against

Union Berlin prediction: Bawler's model rates Union Berlin at 1.50 expected goals scored and 1.66 conceded per match across 6 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 100% of the time. They have won 2 of their last 5 settled matches. No Union Berlin fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Union Berlin sit close to the Bundesliga average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.50 expected goals a game and conceding 1.66. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 1.83 a game against 1.50 expected. Across 6 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Union Berlin have been correct 100% of the time.

Union Berlin in numbers

34 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.3
Goals · per game
let in 1.7
Home 1.5Away 1.1
5.0
Corners · per game
give up 4.8
Home 5.2Away 4.8
12.5
Shots · per game
faced 12.9
Home 13.2Away 11.7
3.9
On target · per game
faced 4.4
Home 4.3Away 3.5
Last 6 games
16 May
4-0
vs Augsburg
4-9
10 May
3-1
@ Mainz
8-7
02 May
2-2
vs FC Koln
2-5
24 Apr
1-3
@ RB Leipzig
4-10
18 Apr
1-2
vs Wolfsburg
11-4
11 Apr
1-3
@ Heidenheim
5-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Attack vs defence

How Union Berlin compare with the GERMANY: Bundesliga average, per match.

Goals for
1.50
Below average
Goals against
1.66
Tighter than most
Record
2W 2D 2L
6 settled
Real goals
1.8 – 1.7
For / against, per match
Scored1.50
Conceded1.66

The grey line on each bar is the GERMANY: Bundesliga average (1.67 scored, 1.69 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.50 xG per match · -0.17 above the GERMANY: Bundesliga average of 1.67.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Union Berlin fixtures (5/5).

How Bawler has done on Union Berlin

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 6 of 6, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%5/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Transfer activity

INEmmanuel Latte LathSTfrom Atlanta UnitedLoan
INZeno Van Den BoschCBfrom Royal AntwerpFree transfer
INStanley N'SokiCBfrom Hoffenheim€1.5m
INMarvin FriedrichCBfrom Borussia MönchengladbachFree transfer
OUTDanilho DoekhiCBto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTChris BediaSTto Al-Nasr SCUndisclosed
OUTAlex KrálCMto FC KøbenhavnFree transfer
OUTLászlo BénesAMto Gent€1.1m
OUTYannic SteinGKto Hansa RostockUndisclosed
OUTTom Wisbereitto AugsburgFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Union Berlin and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly