> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Saturday 06 Jun, 18:30 UTC
United States vs Germany
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Germany's 0.55 expected-goals advantage and 47% win probability make the Draw or Away Win (X2) at 74% the logical banker, punishing the hosts' 1.10 xG ceiling.
Win probability
22.9% home30.1% draw47.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
United StatesstepGermany
1.07Base xG · rolling 26-match1.68
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.10Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.66
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
10
9
5
2
1
1
7
12
10
5
2
1
2
4
6
5
3
1
3
1
2
2
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
United States 1–2 Germany
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+