> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Saturday 23 May, 19:00 UTC
Valencia vs Barcelona
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Barcelona's 41% win probability and dominant league position justify backing away victory despite Valencia's resilience in a low-scoring xG environment favoring defensive solidity.
Win probability
29.8% home29.3% draw40.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ValenciastepBarcelona
1.29Base xG · rolling 26-match1.72
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.39Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.66
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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8
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11
9
5
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8
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1
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1
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1
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6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Valencia 3–1 Barcelona
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+