> MATCH.PREDICT()·Germany: Bundesliga·Saturday 09 May, 13:30 UTC
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
39.4% home24.7% draw35.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
VfB StuttgartstepBayer Leverkusen
1.90Base xG · rolling 26-match2.04
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.05Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.96
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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7
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6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
VfB Stuttgart 3–1 Bayer Leverkusen
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+