FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 09 May 2026
VfB Stuttgart 3–1 Bayer LeverkusenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had VfB Stuttgart at 39%, draw at 25%, Bayer Leverkusen at 36%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward VfB Stuttgart.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Stuttgart win
39%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Leverkusen win
36%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.05 – 1.96
Total 4.01
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (-0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Value
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.82x
- Over 10.5 Corners✓
- BTTS Yes✓
- X2✗