> MATCH.PREDICT()·Germany: Bundesliga·Saturday 09 May, 16:30 UTC
VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
19.9% home20.3% draw59.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
VfL WolfsburgstepBayern Munich
1.52Base xG · rolling 26-match2.91
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.64Final λ — what the Poisson uses2.80
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
3
5
4
3
2
1
1
2
5
8
7
5
3
1
2
2
4
6
6
4
2
1
3
1
2
3
3
2
1
1
4
1
1
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 Bayern Munich
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+