FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 09 May 2026
VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 Bayern MunichMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had VfL Wolfsburg at 20%, draw at 20%, Bayern Munich at 60%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Bayern Munich.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Wolfsburg win
20%
Draw
20%
Munich win
60%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.64 – 2.80
Total 4.44
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-3.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 88%
✓ Won
Value
1X
Pre-match: 39%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
BTTS No
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.77x
- Over 10.5 Corners✗
- BTTS Yes✗
- Away Win✓