> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Sunday 24 May, 19:00 UTC
Villarreal vs Atlético Madrid
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Villarreal's xG edge (1.53 vs 1.30) with equal motivation makes Over 1.5 Goals the most reliable play despite tight win probabilities.
▲End-of-season stakes
Home
Villarreal
Away
Atlético Madrid
Win probability
39.5% home30.8% draw29.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
VillarrealstepAtlético Madrid
1.41Base xG · rolling 26-match1.35
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.53Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.30
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
8
5
2
1
1
9
12
8
3
1
2
7
9
6
3
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
1
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Villarreal 5–1 Atlético Madrid
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+