FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Sunday, 26 April 2026
Villarreal 2–1 Celta VigoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Villarreal at 48%, draw at 25%, Celta Vigo at 27%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Villarreal.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Villarreal win
48%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Vigo win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 1.10
Total 2.65
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Villarreal or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost