> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Wednesday 13 May, 17:00 UTC
Villarreal vs Sevilla
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Villarreal's Champions League desperation combined with Sevilla's defensive vulnerability creates a dominant home win setup despite elevated xG suggesting goals.
Win probability
53.4% home26.0% draw20.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
VillarrealstepSevilla
1.90Base xG · rolling 26-match1.28
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.05Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.24
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 2.5 Goals + Over 8.5 SOT + Over 9.5 Corners
Model 32.7% · @ 3.06x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Villarreal 2–3 Sevilla
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+