> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Sunday 10 May, 15:30 UTC
West Ham United vs Arsenal
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
25.1% home28.8% draw46.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
West Ham UnitedstepArsenal
1.16Base xG · rolling 26-match1.82
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.26Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.75
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
9
8
4
2
1
1
6
11
10
6
2
1
2
4
7
6
3
2
1
3
2
3
3
1
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
West Ham United 0–1 Arsenal
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+