FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 10 May 2026
West Ham United 0–1 ArsenalMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had West Ham United at 25%, draw at 29%, Arsenal at 46%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Arsenal.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
25%
Draw
29%
Arsenal win
46%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.26 – 1.75
Total 3.01
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 55%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Home Win
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.05x
- X2✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✗