> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Sunday 24 May, 15:00 UTC
West Ham United vs Leeds United
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Leeds' relegation-irrelevant mindset plus West Ham's desperation creates edge for BTTS No despite slight xG deficit.
▲End-of-season stakes
Home
West Ham United
Battling relegation
18th · 2 from safety · 1 left
Model nudged xG by +5% for motivation
Away
Leeds United
Nothing to play for
14th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by −5% for motivation
Win probability
30.9% home31.4% draw37.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
West Ham UnitedstepLeeds United
1.20Base xG · rolling 26-match1.51
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.30Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.45
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
9
7
3
1
1
8
12
9
4
2
2
5
8
6
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
West Ham United 3–0 Leeds United
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+