FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 24 May 2026
West Ham United 3–0 Leeds UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had West Ham United at 31%, draw at 31%, Leeds United at 38%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-0. The model's headline call was Leeds United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
31%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
United win
38%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.30 – 1.45
Total 2.75
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 82%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.32x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- 1X✓
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"Leeds' relegation-irrelevant mindset plus West Ham's desperation creates edge for BTTS No despite slight xG deficit."