> MATCH.PREDICT()·BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League - Conference League Group·Saturday 02 May, 14:00 UTC
Westerlo vs Leuven
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
42.7% home30.0% draw27.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
WesterlostepLeuven
1.35Base xG · rolling 26-match1.15
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.46Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.11
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
11
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Westerlo 3–3 Leuven
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+