FT · BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League - Conference League Group · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Westerlo 3–3 LeuvenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Westerlo at 43%, draw at 30%, Leuven at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-3. The model's headline call was Westerlo to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Westerlo win
43%
Draw
30%
Actual ✓
Leuven win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.46 – 1.11
Total 2.57
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won