FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1–1 FulhamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Wolverhampton Wanderers at 31%, draw at 34%, Fulham at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Fulham to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Wanderers win
31%
Draw
34%
Actual ✓
Fulham win
35%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.19 – 1.27
Total 2.46
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.36x
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- 1X✓
> What we said pre-match
"Fulham's superior motivation and xG edge (1.27 vs 1.19) support the away win at 35%, though draw's 34% probability makes X2 the banker play."