> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Sunday 17 May, 14:00 UTC
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Fulham
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Fulham's superior motivation and xG edge (1.27 vs 1.19) support the away win at 35%, though draw's 34% probability makes X2 the banker play.
Win probability
31.4% home33.6% draw35.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Wolverhampton WanderersstepFulham
1.11Base xG · rolling 26-match1.32
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.19Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.27
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
11
7
3
1
1
10
13
8
3
1
2
6
8
5
2
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 7.5 SOT + Under 10.5 Corners + Over 1.5 Goals + 1X
Model 29.8% · @ 3.36x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1–1 Fulham
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+