> MATCH.PREDICT()·ENGLAND: Premier League·Saturday 02 May, 14:00 UTC
Wolves vs Sunderland
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
29.8% home33.6% draw36.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
WolvesstepSunderland
0.94Base xG · rolling 26-match1.20
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.01Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.16
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11
13
8
3
1
1
12
13
8
3
1
2
6
7
4
2
3
2
2
1
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Wolves 1–1 Sunderland
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+