FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Wolves 1–1 SunderlandMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Wolves at 30%, draw at 34%, Sunderland at 37%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Sunderland to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Wolves win
30%
Draw
34%
Actual ✓
Sunderland win
37%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.01 – 1.16
Total 2.17
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 70%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 44%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Home Win
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost