> MATCH.PREDICT()·NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie·Sunday 03 May, 12:30 UTC
Zwolle vs Heracles
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
44.2% home24.3% draw31.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ZwollestepHeracles
1.90Base xG · rolling 26-match1.79
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.05Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.72
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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8
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 7.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 14.7% · @ 6.80x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Zwolle 1–0 Heracles
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+