Bawler / Netherlands: Eredivisie / Zwolle
Team profile

Zwolle Prediction

Per-game numbers from 36 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
9.5
a game
17.7 faced
On target
3.5
a game
6.3 faced
Goals
1.3 – 2.1
scored – conceded
a game, 36 matches
Next match
14%
Zwolle win chance
at Heerenveen · Sat 22 Aug 19:00

Zwolle prediction: for Zwolle's next match — Heerenveen vs Zwolle on Saturday 22 Aug, 19:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Heerenveen are favoured (63%).

Zwolle are vulnerable at the back, conceding 1.84 expected goals a game against an Eredivisie average of 1.55. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 1.00 goals a game against 1.46 expected. Recent form is poor — 4 defeats in a row. Next up is a trip to Heerenveen, where the model has them as underdogs at 14%.

Zwolle in numbers

36 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.3
Goals · per game
let in 2.1
Home 1.2Away 1.3
3.5
Corners · per game
give up 6.2
Home 3.9Away 3.1
9.5
Shots · per game
faced 17.7
Home 9.8Away 9.3
3.5
On target · per game
faced 6.3
Home 3.4Away 3.5
Last 6 games
16 Aug
1-3
@ Twente
3-6
09 Aug
0-2
vs Ajax
2-10
17 May
0-2
vs Feyenoord
2-12
10 May
2-3
@ Sittard
5-6
03 May
1-0
vs Heracles
3-3
23 Apr
1-6
@ PSV
4-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Heerenveen · Saturday 22 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Win
14%
Zwolle
Draw
23%
Loss
63%
Heerenveen
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Zwolle compare with the Netherlands: Eredivisie average, per match.

Goals for
1.46
Below average
Goals against
1.84
Leakier than most
Record
2W 0D 4L
6 settled
Real goals
1.0 – 1.7
For / against, per match
Scored1.46
Conceded1.84

The grey line on each bar is the Netherlands: Eredivisie average (1.63 scored, 1.55 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.46 xG per match · -0.17 above the Netherlands: Eredivisie average of 1.63.
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.84 xG per match · +0.29 vs league average of 1.55.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 75% of the time on Zwolle fixtures (3/4).
4-match losing run
Form line shows consecutive losses in their most recent settled fixtures. Confidence is low going into the next match.

How Bawler has done on Zwolle

83%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 6, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)75%3/4
Result100%2/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Sun 16 Aug@ FC Twente
High confidence: Home Win
Sun 09 Augvs Ajax Amsterdam
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs Feyenoord Rotterdam
High confidence: X2
Sun 10 May@ Fortuna Sittard
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 03 Mayvs Heracles
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 21 Marvs NAC Breda
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

More on Zwolle and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly