> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 10 May, 18:45 UTC
AC Milan vs Atalanta
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
41.6% home28.0% draw30.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AC MilanstepAtalanta
1.65Base xG · rolling 26-match1.56
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.78Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.50
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
6
4
2
1
1
7
10
8
4
1
2
6
9
7
3
1
3
4
5
4
2
1
4
2
2
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
AC Milan 2–3 Atalanta
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+