FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 10 May 2026
AC Milan 2–3 AtalantaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had AC Milan at 42%, draw at 28%, Atalanta at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-3. The model's headline call was AC Milan to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Milan win
42%
Draw
28%
Atalanta win
30%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.78 – 1.50
Total 3.28
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 43%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.48x
- Over 8.5 Corners✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- 1X✗