> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 24 May, 18:45 UTC
AC Milan vs Cagliari
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Milan's title desperation and 0.67 xG advantage suggests a low-scoring home win, making 1X at 74% the optimal play over the 50-50 moneyline.
▲End-of-season stakes
Home
AC Milan
Holding Champions League spot
4th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by +3.4% for motivation
Away
Cagliari
Nothing to play for
16th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by −5% for motivation
Win probability
49.8% home30.7% draw19.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AC MilanstepCagliari
1.49Base xG · rolling 26-match0.97
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.61Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.94
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
7
3
1
1
13
12
6
2
2
10
10
4
1
3
5
5
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
AC Milan 1–2 Cagliari
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+