FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 24 May 2026
AC Milan 1–2 CagliariMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had AC Milan at 50%, draw at 31%, Cagliari at 20%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was AC Milan to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Milan win
50%
Draw
31%
Cagliari win
20%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.61 – 0.94
Total 2.55
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 74%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 47%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.39x
- 1X✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"Milan's title desperation and 0.67 xG advantage suggests a low-scoring home win, making 1X at 74% the optimal play over the 50-50 moneyline."