> MATCH.PREDICT()·France: Ligue 1·Sunday 10 May, 19:00 UTC
AJ Auxerre vs Nice
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
43.4% home27.5% draw29.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AJ AuxerrestepNice
1.70Base xG · rolling 26-match1.55
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.84Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.49
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
5
4
2
1
1
7
10
7
4
1
2
6
9
7
3
1
3
4
6
4
2
1
4
2
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
AJ Auxerre 2–1 Nice
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+