Bawler / France: Ligue 1 / Auxerre
Team profile

Auxerre Prediction

Per-game numbers from 34 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
10.7
a game
12.0 faced
On target
3.5
a game
4.7 faced
Goals
1.0 – 1.3
scored – conceded
a game, 34 matches
Next match
16%
Auxerre win chance
at Lens · Sat 22 Aug 15:15

Auxerre prediction: for Auxerre's next match — Lens vs Auxerre on Saturday 22 Aug, 15:15 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Lens are favoured (61%).

Auxerre sit close to the Ligue 1 average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.28 expected goals a game and conceding 1.27. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.20 a game against 1.28 expected. Form is with them: 3 straight wins. Next up is a trip to Lens, where the model has them as underdogs at 16%.

Auxerre in numbers

34 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.0
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
Home 1.1Away 0.9
4.8
Corners · per game
give up 4.7
Home 5.5Away 4.1
10.7
Shots · per game
faced 12.0
Home 11.5Away 9.9
3.5
On target · per game
faced 4.7
Home 3.8Away 3.2
Last 6 games
17 May
2-0
@ Lille
2-4
10 May
2-1
vs Nice
10-1
03 May
3-1
vs Angers
4-6
25 Apr
2-3
@ Lyon
3-6
19 Apr
2-2
@ Monaco
3-11
11 Apr
0-0
vs Nantes
3-2

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Lens · Saturday 22 Aug, 15:15 UTC

Win
16%
Auxerre
Draw
22%
Loss
61%
Lens
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Auxerre compare with the France: Ligue 1 average, per match.

Goals for
1.28
Below average
Goals against
1.27
Tighter than most
Record
4W 1D 0L
5 settled
Real goals
2.2 – 0.6
For / against, per match
Scored1.28
Conceded1.27

The grey line on each bar is the France: Ligue 1 average (1.58 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.28 xG per match · -0.30 above the France: Ligue 1 average of 1.58.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.27 xG per match · -0.18 vs league average of 1.45.
On a 3-match winning run
Form line shows consecutive wins in their most recent settled fixtures. Momentum factor worth weighting.

How Bawler has done on Auxerre

80%
of high-confidence calls correct — 4 of 5, well above the ~65% baseline
Result67%2/3
Goals (Over/Under)100%2/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Sun 17 May@ Lille
High confidence: 1X
Sun 10 Mayvs Nice
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 03 Mayvs Angers
High confidence: 1X
Sun 05 Apr@ Le Havre
High confidence: 1X
Sat 21 Marvs Brest
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INArthur PiedfortDMfrom Westerlo€5.5m
INDanny NamasoAMfrom FC Porto€5m
INRomain FaivreRWfrom AFC BournemouthLoan
INChrist MakossoCBfrom Luton Town€2.3m
INRémy LascaryLWfrom LensLoan
INMamadou DiopGKfrom Grenoble€2m
INXiangxin WeiDMfrom Meizhou Hakka F.C.Undisclosed
INPaul NardiGKfrom Free agentFree transfer
OUTLassine SinayokoSTto Paris FC€8m
OUTGideon MensahLBto 1. FC KölnFree transfer
OUTPaul JolyRWBto Kaiserslautern€1.3m
OUTDonovan LéonGKto AbhaFree transfer
OUTThéo De PercinGKto SC BastiaLoan
OUTSaad AgouzoulCBto SochauxFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Auxerre and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly