FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 10 May 2026
AJ Auxerre 2–1 NiceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had AJ Auxerre at 43%, draw at 28%, Nice at 29%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward AJ Auxerre.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Auxerre win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Nice win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.84 – 1.49
Total 3.33
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 44%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 2.35x
- Over 9.5 Corners✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- 1X✓